So we win the Big Ten --- Again

The unbeaten season thing now has to become the only motivation for the Illini until the NCAA. There is nothing left to prove. We will be the #1 seed in the Big Ten tournament for sure, which means we know that the Friday game interferes with some work related things (thank you TIVO) and almost certainly they will be the #1 seed for the entire NCAA tournament, which means they get to play the winner of the #64-#65 game. After that cupcake, however, they'll have real games to play and will be challenged.

I do hope they go unbeaten because that will keep the edge on. It is hard to imagine, however, that they will look good in their gmes. The motivation is weak.

Hiatus

It is not the weekend but the Illini don't play till mid-week against Purdue. I'll miss that but will get to see that last season game against OSU. Assuming the team gets past Purdue, the incentives start to get weaker. They have proven they are the best team and will have the outright Big Ten Championship. So it will be interesting if they go undefeated right through or if they lose. It is weird to be in such a position, distancing themselves from the rest of the field.

In tennis Andy Roddick sometimes seems that way in the early rounds of a major, but he is not #1 in the world and he doesn't have that many majors to his credit. Of course we pounded Wake in the pre-conference season. So that is a little different. I guess we'll have to wait and see, that is all there is to it.

Calm before the storm

It's no longer news when the team wins, so now we're into they psychology of their preparedness. It has to be attitude and commitment that gets it done, right. And Weber, I thought he was a baffoon last year, has to to be genius as a motivator. I hope he does get national coach of the year. But I wonder how much of this is all coincidence. I also look at last year and the adversity. People will point to Luther's problems off the court, but Dee was having confidence problems on the court. Deron has had some of those this year. They didn't fail big time, in the sense of not making the tournament, but there was an extended stretch where they didn't meet expectations. That part shouldn't be forgotten. It probably was necessary for this team.

The Experts

Espn's Power16 has even the skeptic's in the voting (Patick Forde) picking us a number 1. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=1983208.

I like to do these little arithmetic of probability exercises. Assuming each game is an independent event (not a bad assumption) and that the probability of winning any one game is the same across games (a horrible assumption but I can't do the arithmetic otherwise where the quality of the other team and home or way matters) then what probability of winning a single game makes it and even money event that we would win 22 games in a row. If that probability is "p" then it solves the equation: p^^22 =0.5. Using Excel, I got to three decimal places p = 0.969 That seems like a high probability to me even if we're playing schools with RPI less than 100. This brings to mind Steven Jay Gould's article about Joe D's hitting streak. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/4337. Are the Illini hot (meaning the independence assumption is wrong and that prior wins make subsequent wins more likely)? Or are the Illini just really good? Gould says the data don't support getting hot in most cases where the expression is applied (by sportscasters) but the idea that performance depends on confidence and confidence depends on prior success at least suggests an obvious mechanism.

The Gap

Half the Big Ten season left and no top twentyfive games left, at least I believe that was reported. Of course we still have Wisconsin at home and the Cheeseheads are rated in the high teens. If Tucker is healthy they could give us a problem. He is hard to guard. But otherwise we have their number.

Iowa dropped out of the ratings before Pierce had his troubles with the Law. One wonders if things were going badly for the entire Hawkeye team emotionally. We'll never know. Alford is a still a young coach. I'm guessing he is gone after this year.

On the theory that the Illini get up for the big games, playing the middle of the pack could be more of a risk. But Bracey Wright got hurt last night --- not sure how badly. It's hard to believe Indiana could upset us, but that's the type of game where it might happen.

Encore une fois

A hog and a frog cavort in this blog,
But not the Spartan coach.

Big B, little b, what begins with B?
Basketball baby, but not Dicky V.

There was a team named Fordham
That had a coach named Digger
He moved to Notre Dame
And his reputation got bigger.

He broke the UCLA streak
And went to the Final Four
With Tripucka, Laimbeer, and Woolrich
His reputation was galore.

But then he couldn't keep up
His reputation did fall
Accusing the Illini of foul play on Laphonso Ellis
Was his only way to play ball.

Now he has a long history as commentator
On ESPN College BBall
Bearing a grudge from long ago
So he picked the Illini to fall.

But homecourt advantage really doesn't mean much
The refs call the game just the same
You can't win even with an emotional crowd
If the play of the home team is lame.

So Digger now plays the role of baffoon
Along with his friend Dickie V
Teaching us all the hard learned lesson
If you can't coach, don't commentate on TV.

Trifecta

We've had two games in a row where the refs didn't call a time out when they were supposed and let play continue only to call back to back timeouts afterwards. I wonder if they are getting caught up in it too.

Lanny's Final Four Picks

For the record:

Us
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Alabama

No bloody ACC Teams. That's right, none.

Who can stop us now?

Very cool Illini team. Luther is super.